Trump 2.0 Energy Takeaways
As the 118th Congress comes to a close, what might happen during the lame-duck session? While not considered a “must-pass”, permitting reform through proposed changes to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) could be on the agenda. Retiring Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) long-sought comprehensive overhaul of the permitting process took a major step forward earlier this fall after successful negotiations with Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-WY) to reach a deal on permitting reform. However, the package remains elusive – especially with a busy agenda and little time remaining before the start of the new Congress and presidency. Whatever legislation doesn’t cross the finish line, the slate would be wiped clean for the new Congress next year (other than possibly finishing up FY 2025 government funding).
President Trump’s agenda has received a major boost with Republicans retaking the Senate and narrowly retaining control of the House. Presidents Biden, Trump and Obama were able to push through an aggressive agenda as their party had control of the House and Senate at the start of their first terms. Former President Trump has promised to push through a slew of executive actions as soon as he returns to the White House with those related to energy focused on increasing American energy independence through oil drilling and additional LNG exports and reducing regulations. Trump has also promised to repeal several of President Biden’s executive orders and actions on his first day, including the “Green New Deal” and the electric vehicle “mandate.” While Trump would have broad powers to push through several of his promises, many executive actions could be stalled through legal challenges – as was the case in his first term.
Trump’s second term will almost certainly look very similar to the first – continued deregulation and strong support for the fossil fuel industry. A unified government with Republican control of the House and Senate will definitely make President Trump’s agenda easier, but the road will not be without bumps, namely the Senate filibuster. Most legislation in the Senate requires 60 votes, and with Republicans holding 53 seats, they will need the support of at least seven Democrats. However, President Trumps’s nominees will only require a simple majority of 51 votes for confirmation and legislation passed under the reconciliation process will also only require 51 votes – the same process Democrats used to pass the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Republican control of Congress will likely lead to efforts to repeal many of the climate provisions in the (IRA), although the most likely outcome is not a full repeal but a tweaking of provisions, a substantial rollback of the electrical vehicle (EV) provisions and a repeal of the methane requirement. Congress will also likely utilize the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal the recently issued EPA methane rule. Under the CRA, when one party controls Congress and the White House they can repeal certain rules issued by the previous Administration.
President Trump will continue and expand his use of executive orders and regulatory authority – through agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) the Department of Interior (DOI), and the Department of Energy (DOE) – to advance his agenda. President Trump’s aggressive approach to deregulation will likely include efforts to open additional federal lands to natural resource development, expand offshore oil leases, approve additional oil and gas pipelines, and approval of more liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. In addition, Trump will further attempt to limit the scope of a state’s permitting authority – particularly over pipelines and other natural resource projects – and provide additional and significant weight to factoring in the cost of a proposed regulation, particularly at the EPA. On the nominations front, President Trump has already nominated former New York Congressman Lee Zeldin for EPA Administrator, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of the Interior and Energy Czar, and energy executive Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy.
Additionally, the Trump administration will seek to reduce staff significantly at departments and agencies like the EPA and DOI. Moreover, FERC, with a Republican chairman, will continue the fairly routine approval of pipeline and LNG export projects and decisions affecting the interstate transmission of electricity and the power markets.
Buchanan’s Federal Government Relations team stands by to assist in navigating the post-election landscape in Washington and beyond.